November 30, 2018 Slides
Participants:
Jim Peterson, Erin McCreless, Chris Kwan, Denise Reed, Derek Hilts, Emanuel Rodriguez, James Gilbert, Jim Shannon, Matt Nobriga, Mike Beakes, Mike Urkov, Scott Hamilton, You Chen Chao, Zack Leady, JD Wikert, Chuck Hanson, Derya Sumer, Mike Hendrick, Shawn Acuña, Michael Eakin, Cambpell Ingram, Darcy Austin, Mario Manzo, Sheila Greene, Ben Geske, Bjarni Serup, Felipe La Luz, Russ Freeman, Kevin Clark, Chandra Chilmakuri, Brett Harvey, Josh Israel
CalSim results
James Gilbert (USBR) presented the results of each CalSim scenario run. Results summaries and graphs are in the meeting powerpoint.
Baseline
Summer X2 requirements
OMR flow changes
Remove San Joaquin I:E and add tributary pulse flow
Yolo Bypass flows
Preferential pumping at Jones
Chinook model
Waiting on revised habitat estimates for model; scheduled completion in 2 weeks. Russ Perry provided updates on survival through the North Delta and these are being included in the model. Visualization tools are in process.
Data visualization
Emanuel Rodriguez and Mike Urkov (FlowWest) are working on visualization tools for Chinook routing models and the consequence table. We will email out preliminary versions of these when they are ready, and will also add them to the website.
Delta Smelt – modeling zooplankton
Approach for modeling Delta smelt prey availability resulting from Yolo pulse flow action:
use DWR zooplankton sampling data to compare zooplankton biomass in August-September 2015 (dry year) to 2016 (below normal year with flow pulse in mid-July) at the sampling locations corresponding to the Yolo/Cache complex in the Rose/Smith model
focusing on the six zooplankton groups used in the Rose/Smith model
zooplankton biomass was 2-9x higher in 2016 (mean 5.1, variance 9)
will use these values to model a range of proportional increases in zooplankton from the Yolo pulse flow action in the Delta smelt models
Comments:
Should we include wet years in this analysis as well?
Water year type may not matter in the late summer except possibly in extremely wet years
Can look at Dayflow data to see net flow out of Yolo Bypass
Ag revenue
Josue Medellin (UC Merced) has agreed to do the work but we're still looking for resources to fund him. Given the bureaucratic issues and time required to create a contract, we probably won't have time to include ag revenue in this rapid prototyping phase. But, we will try to keep it moving forward so ag revenue can be included in phase 2. Ben said that at a recent meeting of the Integrated Modeling Steering Committee, there was discussion of bringing more agricultural economics experts into the group.
Timeline
We aim to have preliminary model results ready to present to the group during the January 11 conference call. At the in-person meeting January 25, we plan to show results, data visualization tools, and sensitivity analyses, and describe assumptions and discuss results with the group.