October 12, 2018
Participants:
Jim Peterson, Erin McCreless, Anke Mueller-Solger, Ben Geske, Brad Cavallo, Bruce DiGenarro, Chuck Hanson, Corey Phillis, Darcy Austin, Emanuel Rodriguez, Evan Carson, Evan Sawyer, Gabrielle Boisrame, Javier Miranda, Jim Hobbs, Kevin Clark, Lauren Adams, Mike Beakes, Mike Hendrick, Mike Urkov, Rod Wittler, Russ Freeman, Scott Hamilton, Shawn Acuna, You Chen Chao, Anna Allison, Sheila Greene, Cathy Marcinkevage, Sam Luoma, Javier Miranda, Mike Eakin, Mark Tompkins, Erin Mullin, Sadie Gill
Revised timeline
| Planned completion date | Revised completion date | |
|---|---|---|
| Identify team objectives and management alternatives | June-18 | completed |
| Develop conceptual models linking decision alternatives to team objectives | June-18 | completed |
| Parameterize conceptual decision support models (DSMs) | ||
| Water availability (CALSIM) | August-18 | October-18 |
| Water quality | August-18 | November-18 |
| Chinook salmon | September-18 | October-18 |
| Delta smelt | September-18 | October-18 |
| Ag revenue | September-18 | December-18 |
| Flood Risk | September-18 | ?? |
| Estimate changes using DSM | ||
| Water availability (CALSIM) | September-18 | November-18 |
| Water quality (DSM2 +) | September-18 | November-18 |
| Chinook salmon | October-18 | December-18 |
| Delta smelt | October-18 | December-18 |
| Ag revenue | October-18 | December-19 |
| Flood Risk | October-18 | ??? |
| Evaluate the DSM outputs | November-18 | January-19 |
| Evaluate and grade DSM | November-18 | January-19 |
| Draft report available | December-18 | February-19 |
| Draft report completed | December-18 | February-19 |
Action Items
- Contact Erin and Ben if you would like to join the ag revenue, flood risk, or communications subgroups
- Contact Mike Urkov (murkov@flowwest.com) with ideas or suggestions for presenting/visualizing results and things to include on the web portal
In-person meeting in 2 weeks – Oct. 26 – 980 Ninth Street, Sacramento CA 95814, 3rd floor
No November meeting, but Friday Nov 30 conference call in lieu of meeting
Conference calls Dec 14, Jan 11, and an in person meeting Jan 25
September in-person meeting outcomes
- See meeting powerpoint for overview
Data portal demonstration – Mike Urkov
- Mike showed the CVPIA website as an example of how ours could work
- https://flowwest.github.io/cvpiaData/index.html
- https://flowwest.shinyapps.io/carrying-capacity-app/
- https://flowwest.shinyapps.io/rearing-habitat/
- https://flowwest.shinyapps.io/Explore-SIT-Model/
- Things to include on the web portal:
- Ben suggested adding mission statement, roles and responsibilities (this will be especially good for new members), member list/roster and agencies, calendar/schedule with conference calls and subgroup meetings
- Suggestion to include basic background information about structured decision making – what it is and how it works
- Mockup website is deltasdm.com. Contact Mike Urkov at murkov@flowwest.com with ideas and suggestions for the website.
CalSim updates
X2 scenarios
- The first runs of the X2 scenarios (presented at September in-person workshop) had some problems: setting X2 at 74 May-Aug would empty the reservoirs; this violates NMFS and FWS BiOps and therefore achieving this objective is not feasible unless we override current regulations
- Derek Hilts ran another series of X2 scenarios with new assumptions; these are somewhat feasible but in dry years they dry out Shasta (see powerpoint for results figures)
OMR scenarios – Lauren Adams
- See powerpoint for results plots
Subgroup updates
Water availability
- X2 and OMR scenarios have been run; goal is to complete all CalSim runs by late November
Water quality
- Working on compiling and synthesizing contaminants data from CEDEN (California Environmental Data Exchange Network)
Chinook
- Functions have been built for movement, growth, and survival
Delta smelt
- Planning to run 2 models (Hamilton & Murphy, Rose/Smith)
- If model results disagree, will need to assess key assumptions and model inputs
Ag revenue – Russ Freeman
- Metrics being considered include water available for irrigation, land available for agriculture (only for the Yolo notch action), and salinity (maybe)
- Russ discussed Reclamation's Statewide Agricultural Production Model (SWAP), which is used for the Coordinated Long-Term Operation of the CVP and SWP EIS
- https://www.usbr.gov/mp/nepa/includes/documentShow.php?Doc_ID=23719
- Model has good coverage for the Central Valley
- Model uses DWR data on land use, crop types, water demand for different crops, land values, different sources of water, and cost of water supplies
- If we include the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), may need to make assumptions about groundwater availability and cost
- Ben has talked to Josue Medellin about ag revenue modeling; if we give Josue preliminary CalSim/DSM2 results, he may be able to fill in some additional gaps
Flood Risk
- Ben has reached out to Erin Mullin at Delta Council, who has worked with the Delta Levee Investment Strategy (DLIS). DLIS has developed tools for improving levees into the future.
- DLIS prioritizes projects based on a combination of the probability of levee failure x consequences of failure
- Models are all in R code, and data/variables are in Access databases
- In next workshop, we will look at the variables DLIS uses and discuss which ones will be useful for our purposes. We can remove irrelevant ones and consider weighing some variables higher than others
Communications and Outreach
- Brett Harvey has met with groups that do good targeted outreach
- Let Erin and Ben know if you'd like to join this group
- We will include FlowWest in communications meetings, as they can help distil and visualize results